TESLA TO MOGUL

1) OBJECTIVE, PURPOSE, RESEARCH QUESTIONS

OBJECTIVE: Use every Mogul30 (Trading Portfolio) profits to buy as much $TSLA stock as possible by New Years Day 2026. Mogul30 capital and our Mogul30 stock market strategy is being used to generate profits to put into our "Tesla to Mogul" Program.

PURPOSE:

1) We have a price target of $TSLA at $600 by the end of the year and buying below that presents opportunity.

2) We believe that 2025 will be the last year to buy $TSLA below the price of $500.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS:

1) Will Tesla reach our price target of $600 by the end of the year?

2) Can we reach 100+ shares acquired?

3) Based on our BULLISH outlook on $TSLA, was focusing solely on buying Tesla in the year 2025 a good decision?

4) What factors determined the price of $TSLA by year end and how does it compare to our bullish outlook on what it was at the beginning of the year.

5) Will Trump Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates hurt Tesla in 2025?

6) Will the Model Y continue to be the Most Popular Car in the World after its new design?

7) Will Tesla roll out RoboTaxi and autonomous in June?

8) Can Tesla make 10,000 Tesla Optimus Robots this year?

2) METHODOLOGY

QUARTER ONE: January - March (PRICE: January 1st, $390 - March 31st, $250)

2/17/25 - Tesla Stock was trading on the Tesla story and the recent Trump Administration win. Elon is now in the White House and has been seen in the oval office taking interviews from the press. His new venture with D.O.G.E (Department of Government Efficiency) is questioning investors.

Fear, Uncertaintly, and Dought has hit the stock since January 1st as we write this (February 18th). Right now, we see the stock down 9% YTD. Main concerns are, is Elon Musk getting distracted with Politics? Q1 Earnings presented bad sales numbers as they have declined in Europe and fears of competitor growth. We also have the federal reserve coming out in January meeting and decided to hold on cutting rates for the first time in the last 3 meetings which hurts demand. We also have tarriff scares with the Trump Administration.

On the bright side, The Model Y is getting a make over and people are not buying Model Y's until the new one comes out in March. Model Y has been the most popular car in the world and when your whole customer base is waiting for your new product to come out instead, sales will suffer a bit.

It has been reported that major institutions have been loading up on buying $TSLA. Some names that come to mind are Ray Dalio and Brigewater Associates, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, and Vanguard.

2/18/25 - There are rumors that the Model Q, a cost effective option is in the works. China sales have been up and Tesla hiring now in India after Elon meeting with Prime Minister Modi.

3/03/25 - We are seeing a lot of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) in the market this past week. We are in amidst the Trump Tariffs really take effect here soon and it is affecting Tesla and the rest of the stock market. Just today we have seen President Trump announce the U.S. will set the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, our top trading partners. We will also slap an additional 10% tariff on China, bringing it to 20% from the existing 10% we slapped previously.

Some good news we are seeing is Tesla FSD being released in China with a lot of videos of FSD doing well in the country. We also have seen the new Model Y Juniper being released in China and seeing happy customers.

We also have Morgan Stanley coming out and announcing that $TSLA stock is a hot buy:

"Morgan Stanley’s latest stance on Tesla stock, as of March 3, 2025, is a reaffirmed "Overweight" rating with a price target of $430 per share. This comes from analyst Adam Jonas, who also reinstated Tesla as the "Top Pick" in the U.S. auto sector. The call was made amid a rough patch for Tesla—its stock’s down nearly 30% year-to-date, closing at $383 on March 3 after a 5% drop tied to broader market tariff fears. Jonas sees this dip as a buying opportunity, arguing Tesla’s not just a carmaker anymore but a tech player leaning hard into AI and robotics."

"He points to Tesla’s Cybercab and Optimus projects as long-term value drivers, expanding its total addressable market beyond EVs into what he calls “embodied AI.” The $430 target implies a 46-50% upside from recent levels, with a bull case stretching to $800 if autonomy and robotics hit big. This aligns with our earlier chat—Cybercab’s robotaxi potential and Optimus’s humanoid ambitions could juice Tesla’s growth, but they’re still years from scaling. Jonas acknowledges short-term EV market headwinds, like tariff costs from Canada, Mexico, and China, yet bets on Tesla’s tech pivot offsetting that."

We also saw Elon Musk responding to a post on X saying with strong execution he can see Tesla reach a 1,000% return from the current stock price.

3/30/25 - March 2025 has been a tumultuous month for Tesla stock, characterized by sharp declines driven by weak sales, competitive threats, and Musk’s polarizing presence, punctuated by brief rallies fueled by analyst optimism and market rebounds. The stock likely ends the month down from its February close reflecting a 10-15% monthly loss. Looking forward, Tesla’s ability to ramp up production of refreshed models, regain market share, and leverage its AI ambitions (e.g., robotaxis) will be critical to reversing this trend, though near-term challenges suggest continued volatility into Q2 2025. Investors remain divided, with some seeing a buying opportunity (Us here at Mogul Fellows) and others bracing for further downside.

QUARTER TWO: APRIL - JUNE (PRICE: April 1st - June 30th)

4/22/25 - On April 22nd, 2025 we had Tesla's Quarter One Earnings Call.

Here were some things that Tesla announced on the call:

• Revenue: Tesla reported $19.34 billion, down 9% year-over-year (YoY), missing Wall Street estimates of $21.37–$21.43 billion, primarily due to a 20% drop in automotive revenue to $14 billion.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS was $0.27, below the expected $0.38–$0.42, with net income plummeting 71% to $409 million.

• Gross Margin: Total gross margin was 16.3% (slightly above the 16.1% expected), but automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) was 12.5%. Without $595 million in regulatory credits, Tesla would have reported an automotive loss.

• Free Cash Flow: Generated $664 million, below estimates of $1.1 billion. Cash reserves stood at a robust $37 billion.

• Operating Income: Fell 66% to $400 million, driven by lower vehicle deliveries, reduced average selling prices (ASP), and increased AI-related operating expenses.

• Production and Deliveries: Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles and delivered 336,681, a 13% YoY decline, marking the worst delivery quarter since Q2 2022. The drop was attributed to factory retooling for the refreshed Model Y and weaker demand.

• Energy Storage: Deployed 10.4 GWh, with energy generation and storage revenue surging 67% to $2.73 billion, achieving record gross profit despite sequential deployment declines.

• Model Y Retooling: Tesla completed an industry-first simultaneous retooling of Model Y production lines across all four factories, causing temporary production losses but enabling the refreshed Model Y rollout.

Going into the call, most Tesla investors already had a bad Q1 in mind. In our opinion, this bad quarter was already priced in before the earnings call. For us, we really were interested in what Elon was going to say about the brand damage and what he had in mind about leaving DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) and returning back to Tesla.

Elon announced on the call that he would significantly scale back his time commitment to DOGE starting in May 2025. He indicated that his role in the government efficiency initiative, which had been a major focus, would be largely wrapped up by that point, allowing him to redirect his attention to Tesla. He also emphasized that Tesla would once again become his primary focus, stating that he could not remain distracted by external activities like DOGE indefinitely. He expressed confidence in Tesla’s future, particularly in advancing autonomous driving (e.g., robotaxi services), new affordable vehicle models, and the Optimus humanoid robot project.

This is exactly what we were looking to hear on the call as many Tesla investors were concerned about his distraction at DOGE and neglecting Tesla. Elon stepping back from DOGE is a huge step for the stock due to Elon prioritizing strategic goals, repair reputational damage, stabilize demand, and counter speculation about his leadership, all of which are critical to Tesla’s recovery and growth following a challenging Q1 2025.

5/21/25 - In the past month since Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call on April 22, Tesla (TSLA) stock has surged approximately 46.1%, rising from $252 to $334.62 as of May 21, 2025, with a peak of $343.82 on May 20, despite a year-to-date decline of 8%. The rally followed a disappointing Q1 report, with earnings per share of $0.27 missing estimates of $0.42 and revenue of $19.34 billion falling short of $21.34 billion, driven by a 13% drop in vehicle deliveries.

Investor enthusiasm was fueled by Elon Musk’s reaffirmed commitment to Tesla, stepping back from his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role, and optimistic projections for robotaxis in Austin by June 2025. What we are excited about the most is Tesla's rollout of Robotaxis. It feels like it was so far away since we started this case study but its right around the corner now. Elon wants to start with 10 and slowly ramp up.

7/27/25 - Since the end of June 2025, Tesla’s operations have been a mix of strategic advancements and significant challenges. The launch of the robotaxi service in Austin and progress in the energy business highlight Tesla’s pivot toward AI and robotics, but declining vehicle sales, competitive pressures, and tariff-related cost increases have weighed heavily on its financial performance. Elon Musk’s political activities have further damaged the brand, contributing to a 24% year-to-date stock decline and an 8–9% drop following the Q2 earnings report. While some analysts remain bullish on Tesla’s long-term potential in autonomous driving and affordable EVs, near-term headwinds—particularly the loss of EV tax credits and Musk’s polarizing actions—have driven investor caution, reflected in the stock’s significant volatility and downward trajectory.

3) DATA COLLECTION

2/04/25 - Tesla to Mogul Program has begun. Since July 2024, we have been saving every profit in a separate account called the Mogul Pot. Mogul Pot was created for the sole purpose for long term investments and case studies here for Mogul Fellows VIP and to build the brand long term wealth. Since the inception of the Mogul Pot in July 2024, we have seen the Mogul30 fund the Mogul Pot with $3,252.17 in profits. Quite low profit for our liking to be honest but we werent trimming much until the last few months into the New Year. With the first purchase of Tesla to Mogul, we bought 8 shares of $TSLA at the price of $389.32, spending a capital of $3,114.56 leaving $137.61 in cash reserves.

2/13/25 - With the existing capital and a new trim we made from the Mogul30 of $300.79 we had some capital to spend. 2 different buys. 1 whole share buy at the price of $351.47 and a fractional buy of $116.86. This now gives us 9.33 shares.

2/14/25 - We trimmed $531.34 from the Mogul30 and now have more capital to spend. 1 share buy at $354.12 and a fractional buy of $177.21. This puts the position now at $10.83 shares. 1/10th of the way to our goal.

2/19/25 - We trimmed $170.86 from the Mogul30 and we had an interest payment that paid us a $6.88 with the cash we had in the Mogul Pot this last month before we bought $TSLA. We combined those together and put it in $TSLA. Now over 11 shares.

2/20/25 - Capital of $116.55 was added to the Mogul Pot from Mogul30 trims. We used it to continue the Tesla to Mogul program and threw in the $116.55 in $TSLA at the price of $353.71. This now puts our Mogul Pot Account Value which is all Tesla at a $4,120.06 and our Tesla position sits at $11.6524 shares.

2/21/25 - $75.39 was added to the Mogul Pot from Mogul30 trims and sells. We deployed it into $TSLA at the price of $337.68. This now puts our Tesla to Mogul position at 11.87 shares, market value of $4,009.10 and an average price of $377.58.

2/26/25 - We bought in $TSLA while its in severe oversold levels. We added the $138.16 made from trims add to our $TSLA position at the price of $292.21. This now puts our "Tesla to Mogul" position at 12.34 shares. We are down significantly on our position due to more short term bad news on Tesla, but this gives us an opportunity to keep adding into Tesla at a discount.

2/28/25 - We bought $129.22 worth of $TSLA at the price of $292.21. This brings the position to 12.79 shares. Market Value of $3,705.78 with the position down for now. This is a perfect opportunity for us to add $TSLA at better deals and will continue to unload at these prices. Our Average price is $371.37.

3/26/25 - We bought $155.47 worth of $TSLA at the price of $271.55. Currently our $TSLA position is down and buying at these price presents opportunity to get $TSLA at better deals. Buying $TSLA below $300 is a gift and we need to take advantage of it before it decides to rip again. Our Average price is now $367.10, and we want to continue buying below that to lower the average cost as much as possible. We now have officially 13+ shares of Tesla.

5/16/25 - We finally added again to our Mogul Pot "Tesla to Mogul" position. Although $TSLA is wildly overbought, we are still down on our position which means its still a deal for us as we can get $TSLA for a better price. We added 1 share at the $347.67 price tag. We were torn to not add it while Tesla stock was in the 200's because we had no positions in the Mogul30 to trim as everything was getting crushed due to tariffs. But now due to this run up, we see stocks in the Mogul30 that are worth trimming now to add into our long term account Mogul Pot, and our Tesla to Mogul case study and program. Our Tesla stock currently is worth almost 5k market value with our average cost now being $365.75. We are almost to breakeven but that doesn't matter to us as we would love to keep buying Tesla for deals, and below $400 is a deal for us, and if it so happens Tesla breaks below $300 again and we have money to trim to put toward it at that price, we will ASAP.

5/21/25 - Today we added 1 share of $TSLA again to add to the position and our long term case study for our Tesla to Mogul position. We bought 1 share at the price of $336.24. We currently see $TSLA come down from overbought levels to fair value range and wanted to add in, in case it doesn't come down more. But we also want to have more money on the sidelines to add into it in case it does, which we have $215.92 still in cash, and more to possibly trim in the Mogul30 to add to the Mogul Pot. We have Mogul Pot worth right now at $5,378.30, that is little over 15 shares of $TSLA we currently own. We are currently still down on the position, which is kinda a miracle because we can keep sniping $TSLA at a better deal as long as it stays below our average price now at $363.83.

5/29/25 - We added another share of $TSLA today in the Mogul Pot. We bought it at $357.74. We see $TSLA above fair value range but still below our average price of $363.45. We added more money in the cash position of the Mogul Pot this week and decided to go ahead and buy a share right now as we are floating near fair value range on the 6 month 4 hour chart. We have a balance currently of $6,125.16 that is all the Tesla to Mogul position. Tesla has made a run in the past few weeks since the earnings call. Musk is also officially leaving DOGE and heading back to focus on Tesla and his other companies. There is speculation that Musk is frustrated with the Trump administration, but that news has not been confirmed. In our case study we have a price target of $600 and anything under that presents opportunity to buy for us. In the meantime, we look forward to Robotaxis being released here in June, in Austin, TX.

5/30/25 - We added the rest of our cash balance of $268.41 from the Mogul Pot to add into $TSLA again today. This purchase brings us to 17 shares at an average of $362.85. Tesla to Mogul case study is going well and we are happy of how much we have acquired so far leading into half of the case study almost done. We have until the end of the year to finish this case study and we are liking how the position is turning out so far. We wanted to try to acquire as much as possible especially before Robotaxi launch. We currently are seeing $TSLA in fair value range.

6/6/25 - We added another share of $TSLA to our Tesla to Mogul Program at the price of $300.63. This puts our Long Term Tesla position now at 18.13 shares. With the noise of Elon Musk and President Trump yesterday, $TSLA has dropped significantly, allowing long term investors to keep adding into the company long term. We will make sure to add the Musk/Trump beef to our case study. Nothing has changed about our thesis of the company long term. We are still bullish to hold this stock and get excited when the stock sells off like it did yesterday.

6/18/25 - Today we added 1 share of $TSLA to the Tesla to Mogul long term position. That puts us now at 19 shares of Tesla acquired this year so far. We have Tesla stock trading in fair value range during this Israel Iran war going on and a potential U.S. involvement. Stocks have yet to give up a lot of gains so far. If the U.S. gets involved physically in the war we can see a different story.

6/20/25 - Today we added another share of $TSLA to our Tesla to Mogul position as we now reached our 20th share since the start of this program and case study. We have an average price of $355.81 now which we keep tapping away trying to continue to lower that average price as we are down still on the position and using this opportunity to get $TSLA at a cheaper price then what we have it at. Tesla has not really been stealing the news lately with their Robotaxis as the Israel Iran conflict is all over X. We do have Robotaxi date still set for June 22nd and we look forward to it. Hoping it doesn't get delayed and Tesla has a successful launch.

7/2/25 - Today we emptied out our cash from Mogul30 profits and what was remaining since the last posting into more $TSLA and our Tesla to Mogul case study. We did a fractional buy today of $172.20 at the price of $315.98. This brings the position to 20.67 shares of $TSLA or a value right now of $6,518.34. Average price keeps getting lowered since we are still under water but buying it for a better deal is amazing. We have an average price of $354.76.

7/10/25 - Today we bought $163.93 worth of $TSLA in the Mogul Pot bringing our total Tesla to Mogul position to over 21 shares. We currently have an average price of $353.48. Current market value is $6,454.81.

7/11/25 - Today we bought more $TSLA with the last two days profit from the Mogul30. We bought $171.43 worth of $TSLA at the price of $312.19. This brings the Tesla to Mogul position to 21.76 shares trying to make our way toward 30 shares in the long term Mogul Pot portfolio. Average price is now $352.44 with us still down on the position but gives us opportunity to keep buying $TSLA for cheaper than what we have it for. Total market value for our Tesla position is $6,793.38.

7/24/25 - Today we see $TSLA coming down significantly to oversold levels due to bad numbers in their EV business that were announced on their earnings call yesterday. Perfect time for us to add more in as long term investors like us are patiently waiting Tesla's transition into AI, Robotics and Autonomy that will happen within the next 5 years. Currently we have built this position into a $6,955.62 position with us currently red still on the position with an average cost of $350.32. As our position is currently red it gives us an opportunity to snipe it at better deals. Todays buy we used our entire cash position of $310.55 to buy it at 305.13, a little over a 1 share. Due to yesterdays earnings we currently see Tesla stock near oversold levels trading in the low 300's and we will get more excited if it drops below $300 as we can keep DCAing in for cheaper until the transition of this company actually starts to take off and investors start to understand Teslas AI, Robotics, and Autonomy growth. Until then we do believe Tesla will have a rough 2-4 quarters with their EV business which is their main business currently.

4) ANALYZE THE DATA & CONCLUSION

Coming Soon