TESLA TO MOGUL

CASE STUDY INTRODUCTION - Logged before case study begins

A. Case Study Overview

•           Introduce the Stock, Ticker, and Name of Case Study

This Case Study will be focusing on Tesla. Ticker is $TSLA. We are naming this case study "Tesla to Mogul."

•           Date that case study began

February 17th, 2025

•           Objective(s)

1) Our goal is to acquire between 100-1000 shares of Tesla stock by 2030 (Assuming Stock Splits are involved).

2) We expect to hold this position 5+ years until 2030.

3) We hope to see a 6 figure ROI when the Case Study ends in 2030.

•           Research Questions before case study begins

1) What factors determined the success or failure of $TSLA stock by the end of the case study?

2) What were some frustrations to owning Tesla stock during the case study?

3) Over the whole case study what were some pros and cons of Elon Musks Leadership?

4) Will the masses of Wall Street still see Tesla as a "Car Company" at the end of the case study?

5) How did Autonomous Vehicles and Robots contribute to Tesla stock during the case study?

6) Will Tesla Optimus beat out its competitors and will it be the best product on earth?

7) What Market Cap is Tesla at and is it the most valuable company in the world?

8) What other major factors contributed to the failure or success of the case study?

9) Has Tesla announced any new products or services since the case study began?

•         Thesis - Structured argument or research-backed analysis that explains why the ticker is a good investment

Tesla stock is a strong investment due to its electric vehicle market and energy storage deployments signaling robust demand and scalability in the global shift to clean energy. What is most exciting is Tesla's advancements to high-margin sectors like AI-driven autonomous driving and robotics, including Full Self-Driving software and Optimus, position Tesla to capture significant value from emerging technologies with massive market potential. Additionally, Tesla's diversified portfolio, innovative product pipeline, and strong leadership under Elon Musk make it a resilient long-term investment.

•           Official price target

By January 2030, we have a price target of $2,500 a share. Bull Case $5,000 and Bear Case of $1,000.

 B. Company Overview

•           Company’s purpose and its vision

Tesla's vision is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Its purpose is to create a future where clean energy powers transportation, homes, and industries through innovative electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and renewable energy generation, while also advancing human productivity through automation. The company aims to reduce carbon emissions and dependence on fossil fuels with its vehicle and energy products. Additionally, Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is designed to perform repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks, enhancing efficiency and safety across industries, ultimately freeing humans for more creative and meaningful work. Tesla emphasizes cutting-edge technology, including advanced battery systems, autonomous driving, and AI-driven robotics, to drive sustainability and redefine mobility and productivity.

•           Who is the CEO, give detailed background

Elon Musk, born in 1971 in South Africa, leveraged his self-taught programming skills and dual degrees in physics and economics from the University of Pennsylvania to become Tesla's CEO in 2008, after leading its Series A funding in 2004. His entrepreneurial success with Zip2 ($307M exit) and PayPal ($1.5B exit) demonstrated his ability to scale tech ventures, while his hands-on engineering at SpaceX and Tesla showcases his technical and strategic prowess. His unique blend of innovation, risk-taking, and execution qualifies him to lead Tesla’s mission to accelerate sustainable energy and advance artificial intelligence, autonomous, and robotics for a transformative future.

•           Give a paragraph detailing the board of directors beginning of Case Study and End of Case Study.

Tesla's Board of Directors, as of 2025, comprises nine members who provide strategic oversight, governance, and expertise in areas like technology, finance, sustainability, and consumer innovation to support the company's mission of accelerating sustainable energy adoption. Chaired by Robyn Denholm, an Australian business executive with deep experience in finance and telecommunications (former CFO of Telstra and Juniper Networks), the board includes Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO and visionary leader driving product and AI initiatives; Kimbal Musk, Elon's brother and a restaurateur with board experience at SpaceX and Chipotle; JB Straubel, Tesla co-founder and battery technology pioneer now leading Redwood Materials; Ira Ehrenpreis, a venture capitalist specializing in cleantech via DBL Partners; James Murdoch, media mogul and former 21st Century Fox CEO focused on global strategy; Joe Gebbia, Airbnb co-founder bringing design and hospitality insights since 2022; Jack Hartung, Chipotle's long-time CFO who joined in June 2025 for operational and growth expertise; and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson, a corporate governance and HR expert from Walgreens Boots Alliance and Kellogg. This diverse group, with staggered three-year terms, operates through committees like Audit (chaired by Denholm) and Compensation to ensure accountability and alignment with shareholder interests.

•           Provide an overview of the industry or sector the company operates in

Tesla operates primarily in the electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy industries, with significant overlap in automotive, energy storage, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors.

•           Briefly introduce the company, its history, and its main business activities, industry, size, products/services, market position

Tesla, Inc. is a leading American electric vehicle (EV) and clean energy company founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Elon Musk joining as a key investor and chairman in 2004, becoming CEO in 2008. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Tesla operates in the EV, renewable energy, energy storage, and artificial intelligence (AI) industries, aiming to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Its main business activities include designing, manufacturing, and selling electric vehicles (e.g., Model S, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Tesla Semi), solar energy products (Solar Roof, solar panels), and energy storage solutions (Powerwall, Megapack), alongside developing AI-driven technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and the Optimus humanoid robot. With a global workforce of ~140,000 employees and a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion as of October 2025, Tesla holds a ~20% share of the global EV market, delivering 1.81 million vehicles in 2024, making it the world’s most valuable automaker. It competes with BYD, Volkswagen, and Ford in EVs, and LG Chem and Enphase in energy storage, while its vertical integration, Gigafactories (Shanghai, Berlin, Texas), and Supercharger network solidify its market leadership in sustainable transportation and energy solutions.

•           Discuss the company's objectives in detail, what are they looking to accomplish during the duration of the case study

Tesla’s overarching mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, and its objectives for 2030 are designed to solidify its leadership in the electric vehicle (EV), clean energy, and artificial intelligence (AI) industries while expanding into new markets like autonomous mobility and robotics. These goals, articulated by CEO Elon Musk and reflected in Tesla’s strategic moves as of 2025, aim to scale production, drive technological innovation, and capture emerging opportunities in a rapidly evolving global market. Tesla’s key objectives for 2030, grounded in its current trajectory and competitive landscape listed in detail.

1. Scale Electric Vehicle Production and Affordability

Objective: Achieve annual production of 20 million vehicles by 2030, up from 1.81 million in 2024, while introducing a sub-$25,000 compact EV to capture mass-market demand.

• Details:

  • Production Expansion: Tesla plans to expand its Gigafactory network, with new facilities in Mexico (Monterrey, production starting ~2027) and potentially India or Southeast Asia to serve growing markets. Existing Gigafactories in Shanghai, Berlin, Texas, and Nevada will increase output through advanced manufacturing techniques like unboxed assembly processes, reducing production costs by ~20%.

  • Affordable EV: A compact, low-cost EV (codenamed “Redwood”) is targeted for launch by mid-2026, priced at $25,000 to compete with BYD’s Seagull ($10,000-$15,000) and Volkswagen’s ID.2. This model aims to penetrate price-sensitive markets like China, India, and Europe, where EV adoption is accelerating due to subsidies and urban demand.

  • Battery Cost Reduction: Tesla aims to lower battery costs to ~$50/kWh (from ~$100/kWh in 2025) through scaling 4680 cell production and exploring next-generation technologies like solid-state batteries. This will enable cheaper vehicles while maintaining margins.

• Rationale: The global EV market is projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with EVs comprising 50% of new car sales. To maintain its ~20% market share against BYD (3 million units in 2024) and legacy automakers like Volkswagen, Tesla must scale production and offer affordable models. Failure to do so risks losing ground in China (where its market share fell to ~10% in 2024) and emerging markets.

• Challenges: Supply chain constraints, geopolitical tensions, and competition from low-cost competitors like BYD could hinder cost reductions and market expansion.

2. Achieve Full Autonomy and Launch Robotaxi Network

Objective: Commercialize Level 4/5 Full Self-Driving (FSD) and deploy a robotaxi network by 2027, scaling to millions of autonomous vehicles by 2030.

• Details:

  • FSD Development: Tesla’s FSD software, trained on billions of miles of real-world driving data, aims for Level 5 autonomy (no human intervention). By 2030, Tesla plans to equip all new vehicles with FSD, with ~30% adoption among existing owners via over-the-air updates in 2025. The Dojo supercomputer will enhance neural network training, improving FSD’s handling of edge cases.

  • Robotaxi Network: Tesla unveiled its Cybercab robotaxi concept in 2024, with production planned for 2026-2027. By 2030, Tesla aims to operate a global fleet of millions of robotaxis, offering ride-hailing services via a Tesla app, competing with Waymo and Cruise. This could generate $100 billion+ in annual revenue, per Musk’s estimates.

  • Regulatory Approval: Tesla is working to secure approvals in key markets (U.S., China, EU), with China’s relaxed stance on autonomy (e.g., Baidu’s Apollo) offering a potential early win. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) remains a hurdle due to ongoing FSD safety probes.

• Rationale: The autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach $400 billion by 2035, with robotaxis disrupting the $1 trillion+ mobility-as-a-service sector. Success in autonomy could double Tesla’s valuation, as investors see it as a high-margin software business rather than just an automaker.

• Challenges: Waymo’s lead in Level 4 robotaxis (operating in U.S. cities since 2020) and regulatory scrutiny (e.g., NHTSA’s 2024 investigations into FSD crashes) pose risks. Tesla must prove FSD’s safety and reliability to regulators and consumers.

3. Expand Energy Storage and Solar Energy

Objective: Scale energy storage deployments to 100 GWh annually by 2030 (from 14.7 GWh in 2024) and grow solar installations to ~10% of revenue, enhancing Tesla’s clean energy ecosystem.

• Details:

  • Energy Storage: Tesla’s Megapack and Powerpack support utility-scale grid storage, while Powerwall targets residential use. By 2030, Tesla aims to deploy 100 GWh annually, driven by demand for renewable grid integration. New Megapack factories (e.g., Shanghai’s 2024 facility) will triple production capacity, and 4680 cell advancements will lower costs.

  • Solar Energy: Tesla’s Solar Roof and solar panels, acquired via SolarCity (2016), aim to capture 10% of revenue by 2030, up from ~2% in 2024. Reducing Solar Roof installation costs (currently $50,000-$100,000/home) through automation and scale is critical to compete with First Solar and SunPower’s cheaper panels.

  • Integrated Ecosystem: Tesla plans to deepen integration of EVs, Powerwall, and solar, offering “virtual power plant” solutions where customers sell excess energy to grids, as piloted in California and Australia.

• Rationale: The energy storage market is projected to reach $435 billion by 2030, driven by renewable energy adoption and grid modernization. Tesla’s Megapack leads utility-scale projects (e.g., Hornsdale, Australia), and a stronger solar presence will enhance its brand as a comprehensive clean energy provider.

• Challenges: Competition from LG Chem and CATL in battery production and SunPower in residential solar, plus high Solar Roof costs, could limit growth. Scaling storage requires securing raw materials amidst global supply shortages.

4. Commercialize Optimus Humanoid Robot

Objective: Begin mass production of the Optimus robot by 2028, deploying thousands in Tesla factories and external industries (e.g., logistics, manufacturing) by 2030.

• Details:

  • Optimus Development: Unveiled in 2021, Optimus is a humanoid robot designed for repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks (e.g., factory assembly, warehouse operations). By 2028, Tesla aims to produce thousands for internal use, with commercial sales to industries like logistics and retail by 2030.

  • AI Integration: Optimus leverages Tesla’s FSD neural networks and Dojo supercomputer for real-time decision-making and adaptability. Tesla targets a $20,000-$30,000 price point per unit, undercutting competitors like Boston Dynamics.

  • Market Expansion: By 2030, Tesla envisions Optimus in factories, homes, and service sectors, potentially generating $50 billion+ in annual revenue if scaled to millions of units.

• Rationale: The $40 billion robotics market by 2030 offers a new revenue stream, with humanoid robots addressing labor shortages and improving efficiency. Tesla’s AI expertise gives it a unique edge over industrial robotics leaders like ABB and Fanuc.

• Challenges: Optimus is pre-production, with technical hurdles in bipedal mobility and dexterity. Competitors like Boston Dynamics have more mature prototypes, and market acceptance of humanoids remains unproven. Other competitors include Figure, Unitree and more.

5. Sustain Cost Leadership and Technological Innovation

Objective: Reduce battery costs to $50/kWh, advance next-generation technologies (e.g., solid-state batteries), and enhance AI capabilities via Dojo upgrades to maintain a competitive edge.

• Details:

  • Battery Innovation: Tesla aims to cut battery costs through 4680 cells (30% cheaper than 2170 cells) and research into solid-state batteries, which promise 50% higher energy density by 2030. Partnerships (e.g., Panasonic, CATL) and in-house R&D will secure supply chains.

  • AI Advancements: Upgrading Dojo to exascale computing will accelerate FSD and Optimus training, maintaining Tesla’s lead over NVIDIA and Mobileye in AI hardware. Tesla also plans to license FSD to other automakers by 2028, creating a software revenue stream.

  • Manufacturing Efficiency: Next-generation platforms (e.g., unboxed assembly) will reduce vehicle production costs by 50%, enabling Tesla to price vehicles competitively while maintaining ~30% gross margins.

• Rationale: Cost leadership ensures Tesla can compete with BYD’s low-cost EVs and CATL’s battery dominance, while AI and software innovations differentiate it from legacy automakers, positioning Tesla as a tech company with high-margin potential.

• Challenges: R&D costs (~$10 billion annually) strain finances, and solid-state battery breakthroughs remain speculative. Competitors’ investments in AI (e.g., NVIDIA’s DRIVE platform) could erode Tesla’s edge.

6. Navigate Regulatory and Geopolitical Challenges

Objective: Secure favorable EV, autonomy, and renewable energy policies in key markets (U.S., China, EU) while mitigating trade barriers and supply chain risks.

• Details:

  • Regulatory Advocacy: Tesla is lobbying for EV subsidies (e.g., U.S. Inflation Reduction Act extensions), relaxed autonomy regulations (e.g., China’s 2024 robotaxi approvals), and renewable energy incentives. It aims to standardize FSD approvals globally by 2030.

  • Geopolitical Strategy: Localizing production (e.g., Shanghai Gigafactory for China) and diversifying supply chains (e.g., sourcing lithium from Australia, Chile) will reduce dependence on volatile regions.

  • Sustainability Compliance: Tesla plans to meet stricter EU emissions targets (2035 ICE ban) and China’s carbon-neutral goals (2060) to maintain market access.

• Rationale: Regulatory support drives EV and renewable adoption, while geopolitical stability ensures supply chain reliability. Tesla’s global footprint requires navigating U.S.-China tensions and EU’s complex regulations.

• Challenges: Tariffs and potential bans on Chinese-made batteries could disrupt operations. Regulatory delays in autonomy approvals may slow robotaxi rollout. 

CASE STUDY DATA COLLECTION - Logged during case study

A. Stock Performance

•           Log summaries of how the stock is performing

•           Fundamental Analysis by quarter

•           Income Statement

•           Balance Sheet

•           Cash Flow Statement

•           P/E Ratio

•           Technical Analysis by quarter

•           Log Charting of technicals per quarter

•           Describe key events that affected the company

  B. Buy & Sell Alerts

•           Log each buy alert, total accumulation, & why bought

•           Log each sell alert, profit, & why sold

C. Case Study Experience & Thoughts

•           Log emotions and current mood of stock performance

•           Log thoughts and further arguments of the company

•           Log thesis changes if any

CASE STUDY CONCLUSION - Logged after case study and sale of investment

A. Interpretation of Findings

•           Summarize the key findings from your analysis of stock performance, fundamentals, and data collection (What stuck out the most)

•           Explain what the data reveals about the company

B. Analysis of Successes or Failures

•           Identify the factors that contributed to successes or failure of the investment

•           Did the stock hit your target price and did it match your thesis

•           What would you have done differently

C. Analyzing Research Questions & Objective

•           Connect findings back to the initial research questions

•           Connect findings back to the objective

 D. Investment Details

•           Date that this case study investment ended

•           How much profit was made from the case study investment

•           How much capital was put into the investment

•           What was the Return on Investment

•           How many total shares were accumulated

•           What was the average price of the investment at the end of accumulation

E. Final Grade

•           With the Mogul Fellows Scale - What grade did this case study get

LIST ANY SOURCES - Sources & Tools that were used in the case study

              A. Sources Used

•           CNBC

•           GROK - xAI